On the 11th, trump doubled the steel and aluminum tariffs imposed on turkey, adjusting the aluminum tariffs to 20 % and the steel tariffs to 50 %! And threatened to impose large-scale sanctions on turkey. the implication of the white house's speech on the 13th was that this was not a sanction, but there was still more to come!
One
In an instant, the Turkish lira's exchange rate plummeted again, falling as high as 13.5 %. Since the beginning of the year, the Turkish lira has fallen nearly 40 % against the us dollar, the lowest in history.
This is no different from bungee jumping. Now, the Turkish lira is already the second worst currency in 2018. The first tragedy is the Iranian currency, which has fallen by more than 50 % this year.
Speaking, Iran and turkey are indeed he is my brother. The two countries are located in the middle east, bordering on each other and both believe in Islam. they are simply balsam pear on a vine! Their currencies collapsed, and they collapsed too miserably! Turkey, don't cry for me!
Two
To China, turkey seems to be a distant and unfamiliar country. In fact, turkey is not an insignificant country! As a great power that once spanned Asia, Africa and Europe, turkey is a champion on the ground in the middle east.
However, this eldest brother, who is a champion, has poor body immunity in recent years. especially the economic situation is deteriorating, he has twice been named as one of the " five fragile countries" by international agencies.
The house missed overnight and was recuperating its health. as a result, it also encountered U.S. sanctions, which led to a sharp drop in its own currency.
The story happened like this:
Turkey arrested an American priest who was involved in terrorism in 2016. I don't know what happened. I haven't released anyone for two years. The United States is not happy. even individuals cannot protect themselves. this is called the American empire? Then said no! You must let it go! Don't be careful. I'll take care of you!
Stubborn turkey is not happy at this moment either. somehow I, turkey, am also a country coming from the Ottoman empire. do you want to let us go and take us as an inappropriate country?
Originally turkey and the United States had not dealt with it very well before. now, new and old hatreds welled up in my mind. The United States watched turkey refuse to accept, thinking, how can I handle Iran in the future even if you can't handle it?
Of course, the United States is not willing to use military force with turkey easily, but this does not prevent people from playing shady - financial warfare. As a result, the United States seized the weakness of turkey's economy and ran like a tiger. From imposing high tariffs at the beginning to freezing the assets of turkey's attorney general and interior minister ...
Originally, the body is weak. how can turkey withstand such a hot hand to destroy flowers? As a result, the lira continued to depreciate sharply and serious inflation occurred in the country. in July this year, the inflation rate in turkey reached 15.85 %, a 14 - year high.
To make matters worse, turkey is now on the verge of financial crisis!
Three
What is the most effective way to defeat a country in today's society? The answer is finance.
Finance, this may be the 21st century war. there is no smoke, but it is more cruel and bloody. soft knives kill people without blood!
The United States is a big financial country. in addition, as a currency in circulation around the world, the United States has been playing tricks with its soft knife to kill people through the financial war.
I can't help recalling the euro's birth in 2000. At that time, it was a scene of military chaos! The United States started to attack Kosovo and broke down yugoslavia.
At the beginning of the Kosovo war, European countries did not recognize the sinister intentions of the United States. it was too late when European countries discovered that the Kosovo war had once again caused capital flight from Europe, seriously affecting European economic and financial stability. Later, Germany, France and other countries discovered that the us bombing of the federal Republic of yugoslavia meant " bombing the euro" by Xiang Zhuang's sword.
Why do you say that?
Before that, when the euro was not unified, a large amount of European financial capital poured into the United States to avoid risks, which caused the us stock market to surge rapidly and the world's largest " bubble economy". In 2000, the euro was about to emerge. if the euro stabilized, European capital would return to the euro zone. the U.S. economy could be in danger of stock market collapse, a sharp devaluation of the U.S. dollar and economic recession at any time. In order to prevent the return of European financial capital, the United States ignited a war in Europe.
This negative move by the United States has directly turned the euro into a weak currency and has been weak till today. The past is vivid and the journey is not far away.
In front of a financial war launched by a veteran such as the United States, if a country is not well prepared to deal with it, the result may be a tragedy.
Turkey, as one of the leading economic and military powers in the middle east, has lost to the us financial war, which is worth pondering!
Four
Obviously, trump was the one behind the collapse of the Turkish lira, and he was very proud of it. If starting from 2018, the entire Turkish lira has plummeted by 40 %, and this is not over yet. if measured in us dollars, the country's wealth has fallen by half and its GDP has fallen by half, which is astonishing.
Not only did turkey plummet, but it also dragged the whole of Europe into the water. bank shares in the whole of Europe plummeted and European stock markets plummeted. As a result, the euro fell sharply, while the us dollar index rose sharply, surpassing 96. this reminds people whether turkey is another Greece.
Because of its special position, turkey connects Asia and Europe, is in a crucial position and has close ties with Europe. it is linked with Europe economically, politically and militarily. Turkey joined NATO and almost joined the European union before. it can be said that it is almost a complete failure. if turkey joined the European union, then the eu crisis will definitely be triggered.
But even if turkey does not join the eu, Europe is also suffering because turkey, as a fast-growing economy, is a star of emerging markets and attracts huge investment from Europe. Both Deutsche bank and BNP Paribas, as well as Italian banks, have huge loans in turkey. However, these loans are likely to become non-performing loans, which will lead to a crisis in European banking industry. in the event of an accident in European banking industry, a passive credit crunch will emerge, thus entering a vicious circle.
Many European banks have a very large risk exposure in turkey, accounting for 15 % to 20 % of total assets, which is a very large proportion. If these assets in turkey fall through, the capital of these banks will be completely exhausted and their capital adequacy ratio will drop rapidly. Even if there is only half of the bad debts, this is also a very large number, which can also destroy many European banks. Now the Turkish lira has collapsed, plunging by nearly half. it can be said that the theoretical loss of these assets is about half. this does not include other risk factors.
According to statistics, Turkish dollar loans account for 30 % of GDP, while euro loans account for 20 % of turkey's GDP. Now that the Turkish lira has plummeted and foreign exchange reserves have sharply decreased, it is impossible to repay such large-scale us dollar loans and euro loans. Therefore, as soon as turkey had an accident, the whole of Europe had an accident, and turkey had successfully dragged Europe into the water. this was a fire to the ship.
This reminds us of Greece in those days, which was in debt crisis, causing a chain reaction across Europe. Although turkey has not joined the European union and the eu has no obligation to save it, turkey's economy is much larger than Greece's. European commercial banks are deeper in turkey than Greece was then. the European union will not directly save turkey, but it must save European banks. in fact, they are still mired in a disguised form.
Turkey's GDP is 840 billion us dollars, us dollar loans are 252 billion us dollars and euro loans are 168 billion euros. this is a huge figure and European banks are really crying. This does not include all kinds of investments made by companies from European countries in turkey. it is also huge and the overall losses make Europe very uncomfortable. Europe will be dragged into the water, and the middle east will also be dragged into the water. turkey is the largest economic power in the middle east and also a military power. therefore, the whole of Europe and the middle east will have a hard time when turkey breaks out of crisis.
It can be said that once every ten years, this time in 2018 it was detonated by turkey, which really did not occur to many people.
1998 was the Asian financial crisis, which swept Thailand, Malaysia, Japan and hong kong, China.
2008 was the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. the U.S. was jittery at that time and almost ended its position as king in the world ahead of schedule.
2009 was the European debt crisis, which started in Greece and swept across Europe. up till now, Europe has not emerged from the European debt crisis.
In 2018, a crisis broke out in turkey. although there were currency crises in Argentina, Iran and other countries before, it was nothing compared with turkey. turkey was a key country with a relatively large economy and connected Europe and Asia.
We should be glad that China will become a safe haven for the global economy, and RMB will also become a safe haven currency, because no country has such huge foreign exchange reserves as China and has a very open moat.
Moreover, countries such as turkey, Argentina and Russia are backward-looking in foreign exchange control. it is too late to adopt foreign exchange control until the crisis breaks out.
Crisis, crisis, crisis countries, turkey and other crisis countries only now understand that their reliance on the us dollar and euro is too heavy, especially on the us dollar. now they need to reserve more RMB to resolve the crisis, so RMB has a great opportunity to internationalize.
Huge foreign exchange reserves, a strong army, hardworking people, huge internal demand, and scientific financial management are all China's advantages in coping with all challenges. when other countries are in turmoil, we must rejoice that we were born in China. sometimes people need to be satisfied and grateful.
